President Putin's dismissal of his entire
government just under three months
before parliamentary elections on 2
December is eerily like Yeltsin's
manuevers in his last years in office.
His choice for Prime Minister was
startling to both Russian political
insiders and observers of the Russian
political scene outside the Federation -
one Viktor Zubkov, presently the head
of the agency that investigates money
laundering (hard to say how well he's
been at *that* job, as a sizable amount
of money coming out of Russia is
laundered somewhere by somebody).


Putin was to name his "heir apparent"
in December (and may still do so), but
Zubkov wasn't in the running until this
appointment, which the Duma approved
yesterday by a vote of 381-47, with eight
abstentions. Zubkov, 66 today, is either
a stopgap figure, or in the running to be
groomed as Putin's successor. Two
others have been often mentioned as
Putin's hand-picked heir (the two "first
deputy prime ministers") whom are
Sergei Ivanov, the former Defense
Minister and Dmitry Medvedev, the
Gazprom board chairman.

One possibility discussed by several
analysts is that Zubkov is a pliant front
man who Putin could control, and continue
goverance from behind the scenes, as
Putin is barred by the current constitution
from holding a third term as President. It
is also clear that Putin is deliberately
muddying the waters about who he will
name as his eventual presidential choice.

Obviously, one *not* in the running,
figurehead or actual heir, is the now
dismissed former Prime Minister Mikhail
Fradkov. Zubkov's appointment,
according to a leading member of the
oposition bloc Yabloko, Sergei Ivanenko,
eerily resembles Yeltsin's appointment
of Putin as first Prime Minister then
several months later acting president.
However, it would appear that few in
Russia, at least, believe Zubkov is the
designated successor. Listening to an
analysis piece on a NPR program on
Wednesday afternoon, Ivanov was
considered the front-runner to eventually
succeed Putin. Whether that is really so
may not emerge until after the holding of
the parliamentary elections in December,
which are expected to return a Putin "lock"
on the Duma.

It would appear that Putin wants to keep
everyone, including Zubkov, Medvedev,
Ivanov and the "sleeper candidate" (my
opinion only) Abramovich, in the dark,
thereby holding onto control to the last
possible minute (when Presidential
elections are held in March). Somehow it
is really hard to believe Putin will "retire"
from the Russian political scene, as he is
popular, or so it is said, and even though
he has drifted much closer to an
authoritarian governance pattern, most
Russians accept that as necessary.

One expects the next three months in Russia
to be rife with rumors as to what Putin is
"really up to," and whether any of these
candidates are *really* successor material
in Putin's mind. VMS


Note: Written Sat, 15 Sep 2007 14:52:28

Unedited as of 13 October, 2007