While I can agree that American casualties
are down from the previous three months,
and by *some* accounts sectarian murders
are down, there are still some really critical
things not working very well in Iraq besides
the malfunctioning government. One of these
according to AP is the electrical grid. The grid
is "on the brink of collapse because of
insurgent sabotage, rising demand, fuel
shortages and provinces that are unplugging
local power stations from the national grid,"
local officials reported Saturday.

On Friday, Steven Hurst of AP reported also that
because of the electrical problems, Baghdad had
gone 24 hours (Thursday) without water at all
"because the already strained electrical grid cannot
provide sufficient power to run water purification
and pumping stations." This water situation has
been getting more and more dire for several weeks
now.

This is core infrastructure meltdown as best as one
can ascertain, and still another thing America will be
blamed for even if the insurgency is more at fault
for it happening. It is also reasonably clear that
Iraqi officials are unable to fix the problem, indeed
at the local or provincial level are contributing to it.
Infrastructure is not a glamorous issue, not in Iraq
or in the US. Roads, bridges, sewers, water lines
and electricity are not issues most folks would get
very excited about *unless these services went
away*. I suspect that a lack of electricity, and
there were four national blackouts on Thursday
and Friday, are a source of much discontent,
especially when the Electricity Ministry reports
the situation to be the worst since the US invasion
began in March, 2003.

If Baghdad citizens are lucky, they are getting
electricity "a few hours a day," and water not at
all for the past week (and this is duplicated across
the country). These are "below the surface"
difficulties, as I suspect the US military has their
own sources of power, as does the Green Zone,
so they aren't able to see the suffering, misery
and anger generated by the loss of these two
critical elements of infrastrucure.

With parliament (and the US Congress) on
recess, and no decisions made about *any* of
these difficulties likely before September (and
Iraq is even hotter than AZ in summer), by the
time all the decsion makers are back in place,
this infrastructure collapse may actually be in
full bloom, adding even more bodies to a
deeply entrenched and embittered insurgency.

One other factor comes into play here. A US
oversight operation reported late last week that
some $40 billion in reconstruction had gone south,
been misused, or expended on projects unfinished
or abandoned. Congress passed a record $460
billion defense budget but forestalled spending
any more on the wars until the Petraeus report
comes in mid-September. The war expenditures
as of yesterday now total $449.1 billion. Most
of that has *not* gone to repair an infrastructure
that the "shock and awe" business is at least
partially responsible for destroying, nor will
whatever Congress spends starting in September.

The collapse of electricity and water may fuel
considerably further difficulties no matter how
"well" things are going at present (and that
seems rather debatable). US casualties are down,
but over 150 people were killed in car bombings
in the just the past few days. The violence has
not stopped, nor does increased heat and no
relief in the form of electricity or water make it
appear that violence will decrease any time soon.
Uncomfortable and deprived people become
(even more) angry people rather quickly. VMS




Note: Written Sun, 05 Aug 2007 10:18:41

Unedited as of 20 August, 2007