Here's a place in the world most of us,
myself included, have not given much
attention to and, in light of recent events,
that perhaps we should be watching
more closely. Pakistan, one of only
nine probable nuclear states, is in a
state of flux, perhaps disintegration,
that bodes ill for both its neighbors and
the whole of central Asia if that
disintegration occurs.

Less than two weeks ago, someone tried to
shoot down Gen. Pervez Musharraf's plane
(while he was in it), perhaps the third attempt
to assassinate him in as many years. His effort
to both fire and bring charges of misconduct
against the highest judicial official in the
country, Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammed
Chaudrey, backfired when the high court
both dismissed the charges and reinstated
Chaudrey. The violent quelling of the Red
Mosque takeover recently, several recent
bombings and a wave of protests against
Musharraf's continued holding of both the
military leadership and the Presidency has
put his regime on shaky ground.

In addition, the collapse of a government-Taliban
agreement about both the tribal areas and
Waziristan, and a series of clashes between
government troops and the taliban in Waziristan,
plus an ongoing revolt in Baluchistan of a
low-level nature but unceasing, has put the
regime of Musharraf very much on the defensive.

Friday evening I saw a discussion on the Lehrer
news hour about this situation, and the general
concensus about the situation seemed reasonably
sound - three pronounced factions are in play here -
the military, civil servants and moderates, and
fundamentalists/Islamicists/Taliban. The civil
servants and moderates, the socalled "hope of the
nation," priorly had supported the military, but
one analyst suggested that this group was shifting
to an alliance with the religious groups, and that
even if the military that produced Musharraf
deposes him, and replaces him with another
general, that these two groups are poised to
cause great unrest. With both the southwest of
the country (Baluchistan) and the northeast (the
tribal areas and Waziristan) in turmoil, plus
bombings in both Islamabad and Karachi, more
repressive behavior by the miltary and a
resurgence of Taliban activity, especially in the
northeast and along the Afghani border, the
country is a powder keg probably on the verge
of exploding.

What apparently has Western analysts most
worried is the potential if disintegration *does*
occur is the strong possibility of one or more of
Pakistan's approximately forty nuclear weapons
falling into the hands of extremists or out and
out terrorists. In addition, those of us who
believe bin Laden in still alive seem to feel that
he is somewhere in Waziristan, where Pakistani
troops have only the barest of projectible control.
This would seem a volatile mix, regardless of
where such a weapon was used. It *would* be
used if Musharraf falls and the military cannot
maintain control, which seems more and more
likely if events in recent weeks continue or
accelerate.

Also if Pakistan *does* collapse or implode,
Afghanistan would have both a horde of
refugees crossing the border into their mess,
and a host of more fighters to strengthen the
Taliban within Afghanistan. The warlordism
that has plagued the latter would probably be
a bane to any succeeding central regime in
Islamabad, providing that one could be formed
if the various factions go nuts. Corruption is
as endemic in Pakistan as it is in China or
Russia, "bad people" getting their hands on a
nuclear device seems well within the realm of
possibility for such a group. They also
struggle with the dichotomy of wanting US
military aid, plus fiercely *not* wanting US
troops on the ground there (which would
probably only stir up even more violence).

Musharraf is caught between turbulence, a
desire for order, and a great deal of
dissatisfaction with his eight year rule as a
dictator, albeit allowing some level of democracy.
It would appear his days in power will be
numbered in weeks or months at best, and
will his successors, whoever they are,
be as amenable to fighting Al Qaeda and the
Taliban and/or being "friendly" with the US as
Musharraf has? Can they maintain security of
their nuclear arsenal if extremists seize power?
What will America do if they lose Pakistani
support in "the war on terror" or Pakistan
collapses? VMS



Note: Written Sun, 22 Jul 2007 13:39:26

Partially edited as of 20 August, 2007