Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq's beleaguered Prime
Minister, announced Saturday that US
troops could leave "at any time" and
Iraq's police and military could maintain
the country's security. I suggest without
attempting to malign the PM that he is
operating under a great delusion, or just
chooses not to recognize that without
those American troops he would
probably be dead within days. I suggest
that al-Maliki's government only has
nominal control of *parts* of Baghdad,
*parts* of some regions of the country,
and that "control" is weak at best.


According to an AP story by Bushra
Juhi today, "Iraqi Foreign Minister
Hoshyar Zebari warned earlier this week
of civil war and the government's collapse
if the Americans leave. But al-Maliki told
reporters Saturday, "We say in full
confidence that we are able, God willing,
to take the responsibility completely in
running the security file if the international
forces withdraw at any time they want."

But he added that Iraqi forces are "still in
need of more weapons and rehabilitation"
to be ready in the case of a withdrawal.

On Friday, the Pentagon conceded that the
Iraqi army has become more reliant on the U.S.
military. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, Gen. Peter Pace, said the number of Iraqi
battallions able to operate on their own
without U.S. support has dropped in recent
months from 10 to six, though he said the fall
was in part due to attrition from stepped-up
offensives."

The last part of these three paragraphs is
the most telling in one respect. It is hard to
believe that "more weapons" or "more
rehabilitation," (whatever that's supposed
to mean) would help the situation, which,
despite some optimists here in the States,
shows no sign of improving save in the
numbers of "enemies" reported killed,
and even that might be considered suspect.
I did notice also today at icasualties.org
that in just the past 48 hours, another 114
individuals either *with* the security forces
or civilians have been slain. It also seems
clear that the number of security forces that
*might* be able to defend the country,
and government, is again reduced.

Al-Maliki's claim seems specious to me. Like
his fellow leader Karzai in Agfghanistan, al-
Maliki's ongoing existence remains *completely*
contingent on the American presence. He may
*want* a withdrawal, as apparently does a
majority of his countrymen, but one would
have to suggest that he and his government
would be swept away within days or weeks
if they attempted to maintain security on their
own. The training he alludes to has been
going on, in fits and starts, for four years!
The civil war that everyone, including the US,
is in denial about, is raging as I write, without
a single sign of abatement.

Perhaps the US Congress will grant al-Maliki's
wish, but he ought to be careful what he wishes
for - his own life, and that of his government,
probably hangs in the balance (although as
I wrote earlier today, I cannot imagine GWB
giving an inch on leaving Iraq any time soon).
One *can* understand the frustration of
al-Maliki - his own people, regardless of faction,
continue to believe the American presence is
"occupation." To some degree, it is hard to
say that they are wrong. But, it is equally hard
to believe that Iraq could stand on its own
without coming apart at the seams. VMS


Note: Written Sat, 14 Jul 2007 13:33:52

Unedited as of 29 July, 2007

Al-Maliki's spokesperson a few days
later so greatly qualified the claim above
as to make it basically inoperative