"- Deaths caused by sectarian violence
in Iraq are down 75 percent from January
to June" (quote from post on POLITICS by
K. Smant 7/11/07)




"Iraqi Security Forces and Civilian Deaths
Period Total (from icasualties.org)

Jul-07 641
Jun-07 1345
May-07 1980
Apr-07 1821
Mar-07 2977
Feb-07 3014
Jan-07 1802
Dec-06 1752
Nov-06 1864
Oct-06 1539
Sep-06 3539
Aug-06 2966
Jul-06 1280
Jun-06 870
May-06 1119
Apr-06 1009
Mar-06 1092
Feb-06 846
Jan-06 779

07/11/07 Reuters: 26 bodies in Baghdad
on Tuesday. Police found 26 bodies in
Baghdad on Tuesday. Most had been
shot, victims of sectarian death squads

07/11/07 Reuters: 30 Bodies found on the
streets of Baghdad. Police said they found
30 bodies on the streets of Baghdad,
victims of sectarian death squads. They
said eight bodies were found in the Sunni
district of Doura alone."

I can only address the above assertion in
quotes from Mr. Smant's post about how the
surge is working, as no reporting I have
access to seems to be able to verify the rest
of what his anonymous source stated so
I haven't discussed all those points, which
I have no way of knowing the accuracy of.
The brief segments I offer here are from the
page cited above, and with only counting the
thousands and hundreds, about the same
number of folks would appear to have been
killed in the past six months as the preceding
six months, and the past six months has seen
an *increase* of about seven thousand deaths
over the same period a year ago, so I find the
assertion in the quote at top to be absurd, as
most of these civilian deaths have *not* been
at the hands of the Americans or the Iraqi
government and/or military, but by Iraqis killing
each other, and definitely *not* a 75% decrease
(and the site makes clear that these numbers
probably aren't complete).

The two Reuters snippets I include at the bottom,
from the same site as the other numbers, are only
a small segment of the story of just past two days,
which says to me that thirty to fifty people a day
are still being slain by sectarian violence, plus
assassinations of policemen occurred in several
places over the past day, and the Mayor of
Samarra was murdered. Very few reports
anywhere would indicate the level of optimism
cited by the post sent earlier today. I tend to think
that this site I quoted above is *quite* accurate.
I would also point out that just in the past week,
over 130 people have been killed by IEDs or car
bombs. How can two of us look at the same
picture and get such diverse results? I also
don't see Washington being exultantly excited
as they should be if the report Mr. Smant offered
had veracity. What I hear is greater and greater
pessimism, and not just from those pesky
Democrats, but from leading figures of both
parties.

Someone on POLITICS said earlier today or last
night that we "must win." Can we really believe
that to be possible when the reports just today
indicate that the Kurds will probably reject the
proposed oil revenue sharing bill? How can we
"win" when al-Maliki's government, which *has*
had some sucess in getting tribal leaders to
oppose Al Qaeda, has had so little success in
infrastructure repair and day-to-day governance?
I would also suggest that the religious divide is
as wide as ever, and that the Baghdad
government has had not one ounce of success
in reining in either the Badr Brigade or Mahdi
Army militias.

Can any of you who favor the war's continuance,
or "must win," actually provide an answer as to
how that is possible without long term US military
occupation and continued use of force? Can you
honestly say that the Iraqi police and military
could step up to the plate and provide "security"
any time in the next year to eighteen months?
( I cannot see a significant troop withdrawal any
sooner than that). As someone said today, as
long as Congress is willing to fund the war,
the troops will remain in Iraq. But, I don't see that
our continued presence will bring about a "win,"
and I still haven't seen a decent offering that
realistically posits what a win at this point or
in the near future would be constituted of or
by. VMS


Note: Written Thu, 12 Jul 2007 00:12:09

Cross reference as Reply